What would be the repercussions, the immediate and long-term ramifications, if China launched a military strike designed to overwhelm Taiwan? How would the world, and especially the United States, respond?
Militarily, the only way that China could successfully defeat Taiwan would be to destroy it with nuclear weapons or a massive conventional missile attack on a grand scale the world has never seen before. Nether of these scenarios are in China’s interest. They covet Taiwan’s economic value. Destroying Taiwan would be self-defeating for China.
Without destroying Taiwan and attacking it using conventional warfare, China would not be successful according to the Pentagon’s study of countless scenarios.China could not invade without first destroying Taiwan.
The Taiwanese military with US support could repel a Chinese invasion. USA would militarily come to Taiwan’s aid immediately because it is obligated by treaty to do so. USA has made it’s position clear to China many times in the past that it will honor it’s treaty with Taiwan.
The world body always condemns the aggressor in any warfare. However, China would most likely stage an incident whereby it could claim that their action was in retaliation or self defense.
None of the above are likely to ever happen. Eventually, China will absorb Taiwan through peaceful means like it did Hong Kong. Anything else is just chest beating and saber rattling.
BTW, obviously the UN would not be able to intervene because China has a permanent seat on the Security Council and would veto any military measures against itself. The only reason that the UN was able to vote for military action to support South Korea during The Korean War was because USSR made a mistake by walking out of the proceedings as a sign of protest. They could have easily vetoed any military measures that would support South Korea. China was not represented in the UN at the time.Taiwan had the seat China presently has.
June 26th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
That would deeply sadden me, as I have dear friends in Taiwan. It would be devastating to the good and free peoples of Taiwan. With Obama as president, he would start out by saying, "Let’s not jump to conclusions." Then he’d put his spin on what was happening and try to gloss over it and "move on" without getting involved.
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June 26th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
America has a defence treaty with Taiwan so are obliged to defend the country if it is attacked by China.
However, if China launched a surprise attack, and seized control of the entire island before America could intervene, I doubt they would attempt to dislodge.
Taiwan’s strategy is not to be able to repel China (which would be impossible), but to make an invasion as drawn out as possible, so other countries like America have time to intervene.
The UN would be completely powerless and out of the picture, because China has the power of veto on the UN security council.
Most governments — like that of Japan, South Korea and other East Asian countries, and also Europe — would just make toothless statements of outrage and not do anything.
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June 26th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
Militarily, the only way that China could successfully defeat Taiwan would be to destroy it with nuclear weapons or a massive conventional missile attack on a grand scale the world has never seen before. Nether of these scenarios are in China’s interest. They covet Taiwan’s economic value. Destroying Taiwan would be self-defeating for China.
Without destroying Taiwan and attacking it using conventional warfare, China would not be successful according to the Pentagon’s study of countless scenarios.China could not invade without first destroying Taiwan.
The Taiwanese military with US support could repel a Chinese invasion. USA would militarily come to Taiwan’s aid immediately because it is obligated by treaty to do so. USA has made it’s position clear to China many times in the past that it will honor it’s treaty with Taiwan.
The world body always condemns the aggressor in any warfare. However, China would most likely stage an incident whereby it could claim that their action was in retaliation or self defense.
None of the above are likely to ever happen. Eventually, China will absorb Taiwan through peaceful means like it did Hong Kong. Anything else is just chest beating and saber rattling.
BTW, obviously the UN would not be able to intervene because China has a permanent seat on the Security Council and would veto any military measures against itself. The only reason that the UN was able to vote for military action to support South Korea during The Korean War was because USSR made a mistake by walking out of the proceedings as a sign of protest. They could have easily vetoed any military measures that would support South Korea. China was not represented in the UN at the time.Taiwan had the seat China presently has.
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June 26th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Then Taiwan would be part of China again.
there is not much the US could do about it.
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June 26th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
China does not have the capability to successfully invade Taiwan. All that would happen, barring nuclear exchange, is a sea-air battle and an artillery duel that neither side would benefit from. And even if China were willing to engage in such a senseless war, the US 7th Fleet has responsibility for the region and they still swing the biggest stick.
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June 26th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
I won’t be surprised if the UN did nothing since Taiwan is not a UN member and the ROC bearly has any international recognition not even from the US. The US just calls Taiwan an ally. Not sure what the US would do. There will be international protests against such an invasion though.
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